Market Pulse
Commercial insurance price trends
See how prices for each commercial insurance line have moved, quarter by quarter, compared with a year earlier. Each bar shows the range of published figures and how many surveys it includes.
Price change by quarter, vs a year earlier
Choose a line of business. Each bar is the Groundline average of published market surveys for that quarter. Under each bar you can see the low and high figure and how many surveys went into it. These trends cover all business types.
Commercial Property · Q3 2026
-5.3%
Average change vs a year earlier. Published figures ranged from -12.0% to +5.7% across 3 surveys.
- -4.0+11.13 svy
- -9.0+8.63 svy
- -9.0+7.93 svy
- -11.3+7.64 svy
- -17.9+8.04 svy
- -15.1+6.84 svy
- -14.9+6.45 svy
- -12.0+5.73 svy
Show values
| Quarter | Change | Range | Surveys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | +4.4% | -4.0% to +11.1% | 3 surveys |
| Q1 2025 | +0.8% | -9.0% to +8.6% | 3 surveys |
| Q2 2025 | +0.3% | -9.0% to +7.9% | 3 surveys |
| Q3 2025 | -3.2% | -11.3% to +7.6% | 4 surveys |
| Q4 2025 | -4.6% | -17.9% to +8.0% | 4 surveys |
| Q1 2026 | -6.0% | -15.1% to +6.8% | 4 surveys |
| Q2 2026 | -7.7% | -14.9% to +6.4% | 5 surveys |
| Q3 2026 | -5.3% | -12.0% to +5.7% | 3 surveys |
Methodology
- Trends only. These are industry-wide price changes, not premiums and not quotes, and they say nothing about any one policy.
- Groundline does not run its own survey. Each bar is the simple average of the year-over-year changes published by market surveys for that quarter, rounded to one decimal. Each survey counts once.
- Only figures we read in the published report, release or trade-press article are used. Ranges, text-only descriptions and figures that repeat another survey are left out. Nothing is estimated, filled in or smoothed.
- Surveys measure different things (rate vs premium, small vs large accounts, standard vs specialty markets). That is why the low-to-high range and the number of surveys sit under every bar. A quarter with only one survey is shown as that survey\u2019s figure, not an average.
- The latest quarter appears only once at least two surveys have published; until then it shows as pending.
Why your premium can differ from industry trends
Industry trend lines describe broad averages. An individual renewal is priced on the details of one account, so it can move differently. Common factors include:
- Loss history
- Claims frequency and severity over recent years often weigh heavily on renewal pricing.
- Operations and class
- What a business does, and how its work is classified, shapes how carriers view the exposure.
- Location and catastrophe exposure
- Wind, hail, wildfire, flood and other regional hazards can move property pricing apart from national averages.
- Limits and deductibles
- Higher limits or lower deductibles change the amount of risk a carrier carries.
- Property values
- Updated replacement costs and building valuations change the insured values that pricing is based on.
- Payroll and revenue changes
- Many lines are rated on payroll, revenue or vehicle counts, so growth or contraction moves the premium base.
- Carrier appetite
- Carriers adjust which classes and regions they want to write, which can affect pricing and available terms.